The Pervasive Threat of Declining Student Enrolment (Collective Bargaining)

During the past four years there have been tremors and shockwaves across the education landscape, but for the most part educators, parents, administrators, and trustees have been lulled into passive acceptance. Most are oblivious to the devastation that is coming. Without immediate action, many educators’ lives could be dramatically affected.

From the mid 1970s through to the mid 1980s, the seven boards that comprised Metropolitan Toronto experienced the  impact and fallout of declining enrolment. “Pioneering” families left Toronto in droves search- ing for land and prosperity in  Peel, Halton, York, and Durham. During that decade of declining enrolment, school boards like North York, for example, lost over 1,000 elementary teachers. The cumulative loss across Metropolitan Toronto was in the several thousands. For the most part, the Toronto job losses had little impact on the rest of the province. The boards bordering Toronto gained students and absorbed many of the redundant Toronto teachers.

In the 2003–04 school year, declining enrolment tremors began to grow into shockwaves that reached all corners of the province, although some areas (for example, Peel, Halton, York, Durham, Waterloo, and Greater Essex) were exceptions and continued to grow.

The second wave of declining student enrolment is now well under way, as shown in the table above. In the last four years,  Ontario elementary school enrolment has declined by 35,623 students.

This second wave of decline is affecting 25 out of 31 boards. As during the 70s and 80s, certain factors have blurred our vision and dulled our concern. These include the Ministry of Education’s initiative to reduce Primary class size, and ETFO’s Campaign 200, which increased teachers’ preparation time and the number of specialty teachers in schools. These developments have cushioned the devastating impact of declining student enrolment.

During this same period, our occasional teacher locals have witnessed these tremors first-hand. Faculties of education have  continued to produce more graduates than the teaching market can absorb, and many new graduates have become occasional teachers. Initiatives like the 85 factor for retirement and the expansion in the number of days retirees can teach swelled the ranks of occasional teachers for some years. Recent reductions in the number of days retirees can teach without a pension penalty have eased the situation; however, the number of graduates working as OTs continues to rise. Fortunately, several new ministry initiatives have created an expanding number of  training  situations  for  classroom   teachers and thus increased opportunities for occasional teachers to work.

It is important to recognize that the ministry initiative  on  Primary  class-size reduction  and ETFO’s Campaign 200 to  increase preparation time  are  to  be  fully  implemented  during  the 2007–08 school year. After next year, programs that  generate  additional  elementary  teaching positions will not exist. Without attention and a major focus on our part, the tsunami of teacher job  losses  resulting  from  declining  enrolment will be on our shores in the spring of 2008.

Demographic projections bring clarity to  the issue.  Ministry  of  Education  statistics  forecast that there will be an additional decline of 39,000 elementary students during the next  five  years. Statistics Canada  information  suggests that  the number of  children in the elementary age group will decline until 2021. There appears to be no barrier to absorb the pending tsunami at this time.

During the current school year, the Upper Canada District School Board terminated  about  70  teachers’ contracts. This  same  thing  could  easily happen next year in about 24 other school boards. Tremendous pressure to absorb as many teachers as they can will be applied to the six growing boards. Occasional teacher locals will face a dramatic makeover: their numbers will swell even more as job prospects for current members diminish, with redundant teachers assuming the bulk of long-term and daily work assignments.

Declining student  enrolment  will  undoubtedly  shape the  bargaining goals for the next round of negotiations. The  number one priority for everyone – teachers, school boards, parents, and the Ministry of Education – should be to increase the number of teaching positions. This can be accomplished by addressing a number of major issues.

• By 2007–08, every elementary teacher will have achieved 200 minutes per week of preparation time. Our secondary colleagues have enjoyed 375 minutes per week for several years now.
• The class-size issue needs to be addressed for Junior and Intermediate grades.
• The number of split-grade classrooms continues to grow at a rapid pace.
• In secondary schools 20 students generate one teaching position, whereas in elementary it takes 24 students. Altering the elementary ratio to 23:1 would generate almost 6,000 more positions provincewide. Imagine what parity with the secondary panel could accomplish.
• In recent years, specialty teachers for art, music, and physical education, and teacher-librarians have improved the quality of education for students and increased teacher numbers.

The challenge is before us. If we address these issues,  we  can  change  the  impact  of  declining student enrolment,  improve education for elementary students, and maintain the peace and stability that our students and teachers need.